ZCL – ANON Fork Price Analysis – 32 Days Til Snapshot – September 10 2018

The Crypto Industry Journal @KatarinaCrypto

 

Before you consider investing in crypto, it might be a good idea to first decide whether to invest into an ICO, a cryptocurrency or a fork. Also note that these are active ways of investing in crypto which require DYOR (do your own research). Passive crypto investing options are also available and include masternode ownership and mutual fund type of crypto bundles.

In this article we are going to take a look at a live, ongoing pre-fork process in terms of price in relation to market indicators like volume, market capitalization, price history, ranking, upcoming events, social sentiment and the current state of the crypto market and blockchain technology.

What is a fork?

A fork, or in this case a hardfork, is the creation of a new coin from an existing one. In this example, Anonymous (ANON) is being created from Bitcoin (BTC) and ZClassic (ZCL). This being FinTech, it’s about technological advancement – adding features and functions not found in the parent coin/s. Unlike BTC and ZCL, ANON will be a PoW/PoS hybrid, making staking, in addition to mining, possible. Users will have the option to own and run masternodes and earn interest. According to KryptoCal, the code will be published on Github in about an hour.

A unique fork

This fork is unlike any other fork before it. Crypto project teams normally have to sign an NDA (non-disclosure agreement) by which they are legally bound not to reveal which exchanges will support the fork and list the newly created coin. This, in turn, makes participation in a fork a somewhat risky move for investors. With ANON, things are different. Supporting exchanges are to be announced almost a month before the snapshot/forking event.

What is a snapshot?

A snapshot is the moment the new coin is minted and an image of the coins gets registered as proof that the new coin has been created from the original one/s. The snapshot, therefore, precedes the fork by a short period of time, hours usually.

Fork trading strategy A

Some crypto traders view forks as high stakes gambles and have therefore developed investment strategies intended to control risk.

There are traders who accumulate the coin to be forked early and then also sell early. Usually this is done in increments as a means to obtain as many coins as possible for as little as possible and then sell them before the fork so as to take advantage of the FOMO hype and avoid exposing themselves to a potential pre-fork dump. Those traders pass on the opportunity of getting the newly minted coin at no cost. Their reasoning is based on the potential price volatility of the parent coin around the time of the fork (+/- a week or two) and the price volatility of the newly minted coin following its creation.

Initial valuation

The initial valuation, price stability and price appreciation of the new coin are largely dependent on when and where it gets listed, whether it is a part of a working product, and ease of use (wallet, integrations, partnerships, apps, plugins, etc.)

Supply and demand

Traders who sell the original coin before it forks frequently keep an eye on the newly minted coin and look for opportunities to purchase it a discount. They do this by placing very low limit buy orders, which, in turn, leads to price depreciation.

This is one example of how valuation is being ‘decided by the market’ with the ‘market’ being the buyers and sellers who agree on a price based on offers (buy and sell orders). If a large number of orders are in a certain price range and they get accepted by their counter parties, the price, at least for the moment, is set.

The market decides

Some describe this process as market manipulation while ignoring the fact that this is how the market works.

Let’s say you go to the farmers’ market to buy a pound of carrots and notice that your fellow shoppers refuse to pay $5 for a pound of carrots. The buyers’ offer is $2.50 and the seller’s offer is $5. Another seller comes in and offers a pound of carrots for $3.50 because he’s more eager to sell. Buyers go over and buy their carrots for $3.50, instead of $5. The market has decided. Certain buyers and sellers have agreed on the price of carrots while supply lasts – meaning, the price of $3.50 is not set in stone – it’s valid for the moment because both, the sellers and the buyers (i.e. the market), can change the price again.

Fork trading strategy B

Some crypto traders accumulate the coin to be forked and hold it through the snapshot only, in order to get the newly minted coin for free, just to sell it and make a profit. This is a riskier process and requires preparation. To pull this off you have to hold the coin to be forked in a private wallet and not on an exchange and your wallet has to be a 100% working wallet, free or glitches. You also have to have a reliable marketplace or an independent P2P (peer to peer) buyer ready, so as to execute the trade ASAP, because the more people do this, the more likely both coins dump, hard and fast. During the previous fork, ZCL dumped from $118 to $9 in 30 hours.

The ANON fork strategy

The Anonymous team decided to offer a transparently executed fork revealing all important information some time before the fork. Because ANON offers (at this time) cheap masternodes and is about to share exchange support pre-fork along with the code and a few other benefits, this fork may happen the way forks were meant to happen. Traders and investors accumulate a coin, hold the coin through the snapshot and the fork (and beyond) and get rewarded with free, freshly minted ANON coins and earn interest through staking by continuing to HODL.

What about ZClassic?

A new ZClassic team is scheduled to (finally) take over the ZClassic project around the 1st of September (9 days before the fork) and continue to develop it beyond its current state, something that is crucial to price stability and growth, both, in the short and the long term.

Price history

While at this moment ZCL’s weekly graph looks like a roller coaster, it is nothing compared to the section of the chart between December 2017 and March 2018. The price had gone from a couple of dollars to a couple of hundred and back. And while many hope that the current ZCL fork price will surpass ATH (all time high), that may not possible given the state of the crypto market.

Also, when there is a stratospheric and super fast price spike, a dump is guaranteed to follow. People make crazy gains and dump the coin to buy something else or to cash out.

If, on the other hand, gains remain modest, investors are more likely to hold and wait to see where the price of both coins is going.

In a successful fork, which is rare, the parent coin makes modest but lasting gains and that same value is attributed to the newly minted coin. If the newly minted coin comes with a feature not found in the original coin, the new coin may be valued even higher.

Once again, this is almost never the case. More often than not, the price of the newly minted coin is about 80-90% lower than the parent coin’s ATH (all time high), which is why many crypto traders hate forks.

Price to market ratio

Though unpredictable, forks make crypto more exciting and there are ways to, at least, gain an ounce of insight into the future so as to get an idea of what may happen in terms of pricing and potential gains, as well as the medium term potential of the endeavor.

Given that the crypto market is in a slump, market caps and prices are on the low side. Many a crypto lost most of the value it gained the previous year and, yet, traders remain uncertain as to whether we’ve reached rock bottom. Is now the time to buy the dip and is this the dip you should buy? To say that we’ve reached the stage of uncertainty would be an understatement.

And that is the primary reason why we should remain conservative when it comes to ZCL fork price expectations.

Price, market cap, volume & ranking

ZClassic (ZCL) is currently priced at $14.83 and ranked #96, up from about #190 at $9.41 two weeks ago.

Because of the state of the crypto market, we can see that the price movement is modest while the ranking clearly shows that something major is happening in terms of valuation.

This, by the way, also acts as a reminder that the price of a coin is not the only indicator of its value. XRP, Stellar and Cardano are all priced at under $0.50 and yet they are among the top 10 coins with market caps in the billions.

Ranking is based on market capitalization which itself is the collective bucket of all coins bought and held at the moment. ZCL’s current market cap is at $67,860,982.

Another important number is the volume, i.e. the coins being bought and sold in a 24 hour period. The current ZCL volume is at $2,643,318, which about 4% of the market cap which means that the vast majority of the coins bought are not made available for sale by their owners. At least not at the current price. This indicates that ZCL HODLers believe that the price will rise and they plan on selling their coins at a higher price, something that contributes to price appreciation. Both, HODLing and setting limit sell orders that are higher than the current price, causes the price to go up.

Price to market cap ratio

Now we are going to take a look at the relationship between market cap, price and ranking in order to gain a perspective on potential price movements and limits thereof.

The ZCL market cap is at $67 million and the price at nearly $15. In order for the ZCL price to double to $30 per coin, the market cap would have to double to about $134 million which would cause ZCL to jump up to #59. If this were to happen, ZCL would gain a greater amount of visibility which would theoretically inspire more investors to buy the coin and drive the price, market cap and ranking further up.

Let’s assume that the ZCL price triples as a result. Instead of $15, ZCL would then be worth $45 with a market cap at $201 million, a ranking at #43, even more exposure and FOMO (fear of missing out).

If this were to cause a quadrupling of the ZCL price to $60 the market cap would be at about $268 million and ZCL would then go further up in the ranking to about #36.

An additional gain of $15, or a quintupling of the current ZCL price to $75 could, theoretically, be possible and would mean a market cap of $335 million and a ranking at #29.

And that’s where we hit a wall. Going further up is pretty much impossible because those spots are occupied by the world’s favorite cryptos which means that there is a limit to price appreciation based on the overall valuation of the crypto market.

Update 8/9/18

The calculation was done about 12 hours ago. In the meantime the crypto market picked up and ZCL was pushed down to #100 without a change in price or market capitalization. This is an example of the ranking limitations based on market capitalization.

Crypto market cap and price limits

If, for example, this was January 4 2018, the crypto market would be worth 3x what it’s worth now and ZCL could potentially, go 15x $15 to $225, but it can’t now. Not in this market. At best, it could go higher in rank and be worth more than $75 for a brief moment, but that’s unlikely.

This sad fact, however, may be for the best. If ZCL and ANON happen to grow in value gradually based on their respective project advancements, the fork and beyond may prove a solid investment rather than a hype based gamble.

 


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Crypto slump

Everyone who has been in crypto for a while knows that many a crypto project is a pie in the sky without a working product.

Blockchain technology, while being truly revolutionary, can be used by traditional businesses without cryptocurrencies.

A blockchain based cryptocurrency without a product or a service used by many people or companies is basically meaningless and this is being reflected in the total crypto market capitalization which, as explained above, affects the valuation of individual cryptocurrencies.

The price of a given cryptocurrency is dependent not only on the crypto market and the price of Bitcoin, if you will. It’s dependent on the basic economic principle of supply and demand. A crypto project is a product and as a such has to serve a need determined by market demand.

Competition

CoinMarketCap currently lists 1,784 cryptocurrencies and many are blindly hoping that regulation and things like ETFs (exchange traded funds) will drive enough capital back into a market that’s lost more than half a trillion in less than a year’s time. Considering that crypto is a part of the financial industry, it’s safe to say that such “solutions” belong with the mathematically challenged.

 

Real world economics

As things stand, you’re hard pressed to find a simple plugin to integrate on your site and use crypto to sell stuff. The bottom line is that real world implementation and widespread integration have to happen before the market can grow again, which means that existing technology has to be used to integrate blockchain technology and make it usable by the average person. Instead of trying to get money for something with a virtual value alone, try turning that virtual value into real value by connecting existing blockchain projects with real goods and services.

Those waiting for the presumed seasonal market uptrend, ETFs and the likes can get ready to wait forever. The crypto market will not grow without cryptos being exchanged for real world goods and services, something that doesn’t require regulation but rather the willingness and the aptitude to acquire customers and build partnerships and economically viable products.

Bittrex

ZCL is, once again and for the umptieth time, #1 on Bittrex, measured by trading volume which is at 2,818,813.78 at the time of this writing.

Bittrex is ZCL’s biggest listing exchange – 93.56% of ZCL available for trading is being traded on Bittrex.

Fork exchange support

Supporting exchanges will be announced between August 15 and September 5 2018.

In order for the ZCL / BTC / ANON fork to be successful, ZCL will either have to be listed by another major exchange that’s also willing to support the fork and list ANON, or Bittrex will have to support the fork and list ANON. Note that an exchange can support the fork but not list ANON and vice versa.

History has shown that Bittrex doesn’t like Bitcoin forks because they are too costly and Bittrex as per their website does not accept payment to list new coins.

At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC) trading has to be interrupted for the duration of the time it takes to record the snapshot, process the fork and list the new coin. Additionally, trading, in this case of ZCL, may be brought to a halt as well while the snapshot and fork are being processed.

If, on the other hand, Bittrex does support the fork and agrees to list ANON, both coins may potentially spike quite a bit, dump a little, and remain well priced after the dust settles.

The post-fork ZCL price may potentially be higher than it is now, depending on what the new Zclassic team brings to the table.

 

Social Volume

The ZClassic (ZCL) cryptocurrency coin is ranked #34 on SoLume based on a 24 hour social volume sentiment, 174% up from yesterday. Update 8/9/18: the overall crypto market turned green causing ZCL to drop down to #43.

Upcoming events

A look at CoinMarketCal, shows us that Zclassic has five upcoming events, four of which revolve around the ZCL/ANON fork. One of the events is about a couple of surprises so let’s hope that at least one of them is about the new ZClassic team taking over the ZClassic project. ZClassic Blue is of particular interest as they might introduce staking (PoW/PoS). Masternodes and merchant payment integrations are items to be added to the to do list by those interested in advancing the ZClassic project. If that happens, ZClassic will have a chance of becoming a permanent top 100 coin.

Price appreciation

What causes price appreciation? Regular and consistent updates, upgrades, partnerships, integrations, savings rewards and an active community (referral rewards).

Utility

It would be nice to see ZClassic (ZCL) and Anonymous (ANON) plugins, widgets, apps and easy to apply merchant/retail payment tools.

Price discussion

Join the community price discussion taking place now on Telegram: @anonymousbitcoinPP

Learn more

Anonymous Bitcoin
https://www.anonymousbitcoin.io/
ANONymous (@ANON_WeAreANON) | Twitter
https://twitter.com/ANON_WeAreANON
r/AnonymousBitcoin | Reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/AnonymousBitcoin/
Anonymous Bitcoin · GitHub
https://github.com/anonymousbitcoin

 


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